Mathematical Models to Support the Issue of Electrical Blackouts in the Context of Smart Grid
2015-01-15 14:14:50   来源：   评论：0 点击：

Abstract—This paper aims to provide knowledge to understand the impacts of the integration of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the conventional power network giving birth to a smart energy grid. We have developed the attributes of combining smart systems with renewable energy resources to mitigate the occurrence of blackouts. Two main issues were investigated from mathematical models point of view: First, we have considered time series analysis and forecasting models to understand the occurrence of the blackouts and consequently the behaviour of the power system. Second, we have modelled the restoration process of the system after the blackout using Markov method. This work has highlighted the dominance of ARMA model in forecasts and that the smart systems can mitigate the blackouts occurrence thanks to the information given online looking to the weather conditions and to the load demand. Using Markov method we have highlighted the importance of decentralized clean resources in the reduction of the downtime during the restoration of the power network.

Index Terms—ARMA models, blackouts, interruption modeling, renewable energy, smart grid